It’s done.

Guess it’ll be a while before a decently priced Blu-ray player hits the market now.

Looking forward to the clearance racks for HD-DVD, tho. Probably should pick up a (heavily) discounted second player as a backup.

Well, Netflix went Blu-ray only.

As did Wal-mart.

And Best Buy.

Now, it looks like Toshiba is throwing in the towel.

Cue the fat lady.

UPDATE: You knew it would happen.

well, if this turns out to be true, HD-DVD might soon be done. Apparently, Paramount may have a clause in it’s exclusive agreement with HD-DVD that will allow it to back out and switch teams again should Warner jump ship. And since Warner did, things don’t look good.

This is playing out like a soap opera. What’s next?

Well, I’m very dissapointed, to say the least, to learn today that Warner has announced that they’ll be leaving the HD-DVD format for Blu-ray exclusivity in May. Ouch. Unfortunately, this is an almost certainly fatal blow, long term, to the HD-DVD format.

Which means, unfortunately, that a less capable, more restrictive, more expensive format will win this time around. Remember, Beta(max) was/is Sony’s format. And while Beta was superior to VHS, it was VHS that got home video off the ground. That was achieved by breaking the perceived pricing limits that the consumer will endure. HD-DVD players were on the market this Christmas at sub $100 levels (I saw some as low as $84 at one point). Blu-ray is struggling to break $400 consistently. Their spec isn’t completely fleshed out and implemented, their product line-up is confusing (all players can’t play all content, and some can’t be upgraded to do so in the future). HD-DVD, on the other hand, is a single solid spec and all players have all features of the spec, meaning one HD-DVD disc will play in all HD-DVD players, something consumers will assume (incorrectly) with Blu-ray.

The numbers of titles released have been roughly the same (458 BR to 429 HD as of this writing). While more Blu-ray players have been sold in the form of the PlayStation 3, more computer-based drives for HD-DVD have been sold, and the stand-alone dedicated players are selling 3:1 in favor of HD-DVD, driving almost certainly by price point. Yet, current statistics show a flip from an almost 60%/40% HD-DVD advantage in software units sold to a 60%/40% Blu-ray titles sold between 2006 and 2007. So why are so many more units (titles) selling on the Blu-ray side of the fence? My guess, in a word: Disney.

Here’s the deal. On average (we’re not talking about the strange ones like me), the average consumer will RENT titles that are PG-13 or R-type fare, but they BUY titles for the kids. The concept is pretty simple: the average adult doesn’t watch the same movie over and over. But kids do. The fact that Disney landed exclusively in the Blu-ray camp a while back was what turned the tide. Many of the top 10 titles are the same on either side of the fence, thanks to studios that have produced content in both formats to this point (Warner, being the biggest). However, now that Warner has chosen a side, things are looking pretty grim for the HD-DVD camp. So much so, that in the wake of this announcement from Warner, the HD-DVD Promotional Group has cancelled its press conference scheduled for THIS SUNDAY at CES in Vegas. Ouch indeed.

I have an already significant investment in HD-DVD at this point (40+ titles so far). While the news has a certain degree of initial sting to it, in the long run it doesn’t bother me too much. I knew anyway at some point I’d get a Blu-ray player and hook it up as another device in my system.

It’s a bit disappointing, though, especially from a consumer’s point of view. The Blu-ray feature list has some serious problems. There have been production issues in both the media and the players. The price is too high. I’m sure Blu-ray will get over these problems eventually. But will the player I buy today be able to be upgraded to the format of tomorrow? I say that bet’s 50:50.

So, what’s the other shoe to drop? Look for that at Mac World at the end of the month. I have a sneaking suspicion that Apple’s going to announce not only a shipping Blu-ray burner in their machines, but an upgrade to DVD Studio Pro that will enable Blu-ray authoring. Do you think Disney going Blu-ray was coincidence? Who sits on Disney’s board and is their largest single shareholder? That’s right, Steve Jobs.

Now I just want an Apple TV that fixes all the problems I wrote about a few months ago, and has a Blu-ray drive in it. Is that so much to ask for?

This is hilarious:

Yes, I waited in line.

Only about 45 minutes.

Yes, it’s cool.

Very cool.

Very, very cool.

This is extremely cool…

It helps to understand binary arithmetic, but it’s fun to watch nonetheless.

OK, this is amazing. Go watch it. Forget that he’s associated now with Microsoft. The technology is astounding.

wow.

It’s official!

June 29.

Time to get in line.

So, guess what I’m picking up in about an hour…